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The DJIA saw a slide of over 200 points today, almost erasing its 2018 gains so far, as markets react to the abrupt resignation of Gary Cohn, the head of President Trump’s White House National Economic Council. Trump recently announced, without consulting congress, a 25% steel tariff and a 10% aluminum tariff which stunned both the public as well as GOP lawmakers. Subsequent trade war anxiety, both domestic and abroad, has been stoked further today after Gary Cohn, a free-trade advocate from Goldman Sachs, seems to have resigned in protest of an increasingly protectionist trade agenda. Tariffs like these can negatively impact both consumers and corporations who rely on stable trade and import/export prices on materials like steel and aluminum. Cohn was seen by many as a stabilizing and moderate voice within the White House, acting as a balance to the more politically and economically nationalist forces in Trump’s inner circle. He had also been reportedly leading the work on a new infrastructure-spending plan rollout- another catalyst to the past Trump rallies. The next step in this spectacle is the decision on Cohn’s replacement, which will either confirm or deny potential trade war worries. A proponent of free trade or moderate voice would dampen concerns, but a hawkish figure who would champion these policies would cause market participants to brace for headwinds.
On the economic front, we’re seeing a round of data released today from the Fed Beige Book, which serves as a deep economic data dive providing rich context to current conditions. Private-sector jobs rose by 235,000 in February, up from a 234,000 addition in January. The U.S. trade deficit saw a 5% rise in January, hitting a 10 year high and adding to global trade tensions.
At the time of publication, the DJIA is down 0.61%, or 153.99 points, at 24,732.23. The S&P 500 is at 2,716.41 – down 0.43% from the open. The Nasdaq-100 is down 0.17% at 7,359.50.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows overall mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.14% moves to +0.24% within three trading sessions, holding positive until a late downturn. Today’s predicted support and resistance levels are 2,666.65 (±14.20) and 2,729.81 (± 14.54), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,726.84. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On March 5, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for SPDR Select Sector Fund- Technology. (XLK). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for intraday trading.
Trade Breakdown
XLK opened within the Entry 1 price range of $67.08 (± 0.44) in the first hour of trading. In the second hour of trading, XLK passed through its Target price of $67.75. The Stop Loss was set at $66.41.
Our featured stock for Thursday is the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). IWM is showing short-term positive signals in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A)– indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows positive vector figures gaining above +1.10% in the next three trading sessions. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
The stock is trading at $155.99 at the time of publication, up 0.40% from the open with a +1.31% vector figure.
Thursday’s prediction shows an open price of $154.07, a low of $152.72 and a high of $157.19.
The predicted close for Thursday is $154.24. Vector figures rise to +0.04% on Thursday, holding positive for several trading sessions before turning down. This is a good signal for trading opportunities, because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relatively to average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
Live Trading Room Update
See how we make money in the current market and what to expect next in our limited time Live Trading Room highlights. Our winning 5-for-5 trades this morning, March 5 ranged from 4.95% to over 64.52% ROI!
| Symbol | Action | Open | Close | Entry | Exit | Stop Loss | Net Gain |
| ETFC | LONG | 3/5/18 | 3/5/18 | $51.02 | $51.30 | $50.40 | 45.16% |
| MRVL | LONG | 3/5/18 | 3/5/18 | $23.23 | $23.32 | $22.99 | 37.50% |
| RTN | LONG | 3/5/18 | 3/5/18 | $213.32 | $213.43 | $211.10 | 4.95% |
| STLD | LONG | 3/5/18 | 3/5/18 | $48.11 | $48.31 | $47.80 | 64.52% |
| STLD | LONG | 3/5/18 | 3/5/18 | $48.18 | $48.37 | $47.80 | 50.00% |
Our Live Trading Room is open every trading day from 9:15 am Eastern Time, but these Live Trading Sessions are only available for Premium Members.
We wanted to share the recording with you so you can see the profits you might be missing- even during volatile markets.
Oil
Crude prices pared some losses from inventory numbers meeting forecasts, but are seeing a sharp downturn due to Cohn-exit instability. Oil tends to track changes in the stock market and Gary Cohn- Trump’s former National Economic Council head- is removing what was seen as a voice of steady trade reasoning and economic perspectives. On the data front- The Energy Information Administration today announced a build of 2.4 million barrels in domestic crude inventories, which nearly matched a forecast of 2.5 million barrels. This refuted Tuesday’s figures from trade group American Petroleum Institute of 5.7 million barrels. This data, however, seems to be eclipsed by the Cohn dip and other geopolitical worries. West Texas Intermediate for April delivery (CLJ8) is priced at $61.09 per barrel at the time of publication, down 2.41% from the open.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $12.28 at the time of publication, down 2.31% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $12.55 (± 0.05) and resistance at $12.79 (± 0.06). The predicted close for today is $12.63. Vector figures show +0.40% today, which move to +0.95% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for April gold (GCJ8) is down 0.64% at $1,329.30 at the time of publication. Gold saw overnight gains as the dollar dipped following the news of a Cohn resignation, but the greenback has since steadied. Gold prices are expected to be largely informed by moves in the U.S. dollar for the time being, as this event plays out and markets price in probabilities of trade wars or spats.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows strong negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $125.72, down 0.64% at the time of publication. Today’s predicted low is $124.44 (± 0.34) and the predicted high is $126.53 (± 0.35). The predicted close today is $124.77. Vector signals show -0.70% for today, holding negative throughout the outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Treasuries
Yields are continuing to see downward pressure today as safe-haven moves are being made by investors following the Cohn-resignation news and anticipation of Trump tariffs. There are also reports of potential tariffs on Chinese imports led by Trump, and EU officials are currently drafting retaliatory measures for U.S. imports to member-countries. Beyond the spat over tariffs and protectionist policies, Cohn’s departure signals a deepening void in voices promoting global free-trade and pro-corporate policies. Cohn had been a major force in the recent tax-cuts, and was also reportedly spearheading eagerly anticipated infrastructure-spending plans. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 1.14% at 2.86% at the time of publication. The 30-year is down 0.65% at 3.163%.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see solid positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.26% moves to +0.61% in three trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $118.49 at the time of publication, up 0.30%. The predicted close today is $118.73 with a low and high of $118.14 (± 0.23) and $119.51 (± 0.23), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 7.35% at 19.71 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows all positive signals. The predicted close is 20.99 with a vector of +10.03%. The predicted lows and highs are 18.36 (± 0.99) and 23.64 (± 1.28), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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