Dow Nears 32,000, Treasury Yields Continue Rising as Senate Passes $1.9 Trillion Relief Bill

March 8, 2021
By Vlad Karpel

U.S. Benchmarks traded to mixed results throughout the day as the S&P and Nasdaq closed in the red while the Dow traded near 32,000 record level. Following last week’s volatile activity, treasury yields continued to rise as tech shares dipped to start the week. Yields have now recorded five straight weeks of gains, with the 10-year note passing its highest rate in over a year at 1.596%. Over the weekend, the Senate passed the $1.9 trillion relief bill which will now head to the House of Representatives where a decision is expected by week’s end. Wholesale U.S. inventories rose over 1% in January as per the latest report released today while January Job Openings and February Federal Budget are due later this week. Globally, European markets impressively rose while Asian markets finished unanimously in the red. It is our opinion the worst part of the correction is over and the SPY is close to a bottom. Until an additional breakout is maintained, our models are projecting the SPY to trade in the range of $364-$390. The next level of support is set at the 50-day moving average of $364-$370. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:

  • Consumer Price Index (February) – Wednesday
  • Core CPI (February) – Wednesday
  • Federal Budget (February) – Wednesday
  • Job Openings (January) – Thursday
  • Weekly Jobless Claims (3/6) – Thursday

For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

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Tuesday Morning Featured Symbol

Our featured symbol for Tuesday is Ingersoll Rand Inc (IR). IR is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.

The stock is trading at $50.67 with a vector of -0.70% at the time of publication.

10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.

*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, IR. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $64.70 per barrel, down 2.10% at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $43.5 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Gold

The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 1.12% at $1679.50 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $157.81 at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.07% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 1.597% at the time of publication.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 2.308% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Volatility


The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $25.54 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session


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DO AS I DO… AS I DO IT WATCH LIVE AS I WORK THE MARKETS! TRY IT NOW RISK-FREE!

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