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Positive unemployment data and strong corporate earnings are helping U.S. benchmarks reach record territory, with its fourth straight session of gains. The Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, and Russell all booked over 1% gains largely behind the promising economic reports as well as the anticipation of another stimulus package. While the official January unemployment report is due this Friday, the latest weekly data showed jobless claims falling for the third straight week. Likewise, the latest COVID data showed a slowdown of the spread with a significant decline in reported new weekly cases. As vaccine rollouts continue, the next key factor in supporting the economy will be the upcoming stimulus package currently being discussed in Congress. Several key earnings are still due to release including Twitter, Ford, Coca-Cola, Uber, Nvidia, and Disney, scheduled for next week. Globally, Asian markets closed in the red while European markets were mixed. It is our opinion that the market could be prone to further corrections and the next level of support is set at the 50-day moving average, $364-$370. The SPY has set the top at $386-level and broke through short-term support at $377. We are still seeing a strong rotation from growth to value stocks and until an additional breakout is maintained, our models are projecting SPY to trade in the range of $364-$390. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
Upcoming Earnings:
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does not have a position in the featured symbol, VLO. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $56.46 per barrel, up 1.38% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $37.81 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 2.23% at $1794.10 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $168.15 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.27% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 1.148% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 1.942% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $21.77 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session
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