Stocks futures trading mostly flat ahead of a geopolitical “Super Thursday”

June 7, 2017
By Vlad Karpel

Investors are anticipating the outcome of three significant political events tomorrow: Former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee, the U.K. general election and a consequential meeting of the European Central Bank.

Mr. Comey’s testimony is set to be one of the most-watched congressional testimonials since the Nixon Watergate scandal. His remarks will have a major impact on both public and lawmakers’ opinions around whether or not obstruction of justice occurred amidsts Comey’s interactions with President Trump. This will determine the timeline and feasibility of the Trump administration’s rollout of any pro-growth agenda items with bipartisan support.  The outcome of the U.K. general election will set the course for Great Britain’s next steps in exiting the European Union. Investors will also be closely monitoring comments made in the ECB’s meeting in order to determine future guidance on monetary policy.

The DJIA is currently up 0.05%, or 11.07 points, at 21,147.92. The Nasdaq-100 is up 0.19% at 6,287.20 and the S&P 500 is currently trading at 2,429.95 which is up 0.63% from the open.

Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows  consistent negative signals. Today’s negative vector figure of -0.31% moves to -1.06% in the next three sessions. Today’s support and resistance is 2,416.99 (± 2.84) and 2,429.58 (± 2.86), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,419.45.   



Following a report from the U.S Energy Administration which showed an unexpected climb in U.S crude inventories, prices have slid in early Wednesday trading. A rise of 3.3 million barrels for the week ending June 2 was the first in nine weeks.  West Texas Intermediate for July delivery is currently priced at $46.09 per barrel, down 4.38% from the open.  This is a significant drop, and compounds a separate factor impacting prices- the recent shakeup in relations between several Gulf states Qatar over allegations that Qatar has supported terrorism.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows overall  negative movement. The fund is currently trading at $9.47, which is down 5.05% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $9.69 (± 0.08) and resistance at $10.07 (± 0.08). The predicted close for today is $9.99. Vector figures show +0.74% for today, turning downward to -3.22% within three trading sessions.  All vector figures are based on today’s market conditions.  



The price for August gold is currently down 0.38% at $1,292.70 a troy ounce. Investment in the non-fiat asset has been wavering as major geopolitical uncertainty preceding the “Super Thursday” trio of events competes with a strengthening U.S dollar. In times of heightened political uncertainty, investors tend to move toward perceived safe-haven assets such as gold. Inversely, when the U.S dollar gains strength, the attractiveness of gold to investors holding foreign currencies is weakened as the metal is priced in the greenback.  

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows consistent upward movement. The gold proxy is currently trading at $122.80, down 0.24% from the open. Today’s predicted low is $123.10 (± 0.24) and the predicted high is $125.30 (± 0.25). The predicted close today is $124.03.  



Treasury yields are inching higher today following the triad of important events tomorrow.  James Comey’s testimony will potentially have an impact on the future of the Trump administration’s agenda, and the timeline for rolling out pro-growth policies. A weakened majority for Prime Minister Theresa May’s party in the U.K. will alter the negotiation terms for a favorable outcome toward Britain after leaving the E.U.. Investors and analysts are also looking toward a potential tapering of the European Central Bank’s loose monetary policy after the conclusion of a meeting tomorrow.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is currently up 0.88% at 2.17%. Bond prices and yields are inversely related to one another.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see an overall positive trend in our 10-day prediction window. Relative to current conditions, we see vector figures moving from +0.14% today to +0.38% after fluctuations in five trading sessions.  The ETF is currently priced at $125.16- down 0.29% from the open. The predicted close today is $126.02 with a low and high of $125.29 (± 0.34) and $126.38 (± 0.35), respectively.  



The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently up 3.25% at 10.79, and our 10-day prediction window shows initial downward trends with positive corrections. The predicted close today is 9.80 with a negative vector of -5.67%. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 8.56 (± 0.25) and 10.41 (± 0.31), respectively.




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