As a free member of Tradespoon, you will begin receiving a special newsletter each Friday from Vlad Karpel, our Founder and Chief Investment Officer. Robo Street will take you through the evolving space of advanced machine-learning applications to trading and investing. We’ll be keeping you up to speed and setting a course for a profitable 2018- aided by our algorithmic prediction models and artificial intelligence technology.
Trading is mum and volumes are low as markets prepare for 2018
Major U.S. indices are looking to add slight gains today, following what was virtually the lowest-volume trading day of this year. With a shortened trading week during a major travelling and vacation period, we can expect to see even-keeled market activity into the close of 2017. Most analysts are looking at the absence of selling activity as a marker for optimism going into the new year. The pause, without a end-of-year sell-off, indicates markets have finalized valuations and are proceeding decidedly bullish. We can wait until the next series of events spur an additional rally in the near-term, which will most likely be due to corporate earnings and a shakeout of winners and losers of the tax-cut plan.
At the time of publication, the DJIA is up 0.10%, or 23.87 points, at 24,770. The S&P 500 is trading at 2,682- up 0.06% from the open. The Nasdaq-100 is up 0.09% at 6,942.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows slight but consistent positive vector signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.14% rises and falls to +0.10% within three trading sessions. Today’s predicted support and resistance is 2,678.13 (± 4.83) and 2,691.56 (± 4.86), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,685.15. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On December 26, our ActiveTrader service produced an intraday recommendation for the SPDR Series Trust- S&P Metals & Mining. (XME). The ActiveTrader service is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans, and is designed for day trading.
XME opened in the Entry 1 price range ($35.42 ± 0.12) and passed through the Target price of $35.77 within the first hour of trading. The Stop Loss was set at $35.07.
*Trade % Gain/Loss is calculated by dividing the $ Gain/Loss by the Max Risk which is the posted Stop Loss for the trade.
Our must-buy stock for Thursday is Caterpillar Inc. (CAT). CAT is producing incremental gains for its vector signals in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of A, indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows vector figures passing +2.00% within the next trading session. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.
*Please note: Our must-buy stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
The stock is trading at $157.41 at the time of publication, up 0.62% from the open with a +0.73% vector figure.
Thursday’s prediction shows an open price of $160.04, a low of $158.94 and a high of $159.80.
The predicted close for Thursday is $159.10. Vector figures show +2.10% for tomorrow and build incrementally from there. This is a good signal for trading opportunities, because the vectors are a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relatively to average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
Crude prices rose sharply yesterday, following a pipeline explosion in Libya. This event, coupled with an OPEC production cut accord underway- shot prices up to 2 year highs. U.S. inventory data is expected to show declines this week, as global supplies are decreasing as well. An event like this will have more pronounced effects on the oil markets in the future as the OPEC deal is extended into 2018. Prices have begun moving downward in Wednesday trading.\
West Texas Intermediate for February delivery (CLG8) is priced at $59.74 per barrel at the time of publication, down 0.78% from the open.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows overall negative signals after seeing volatile fluctuations. The fund is trading at $11.90 at the time of publication, down 0.46% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $11.72 (± 0.05) and resistance at $12.01 (± 0.05). The predicted close for today is $11.97. Vector figures show +0.11% today, making a sharp downturn to -1.36% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for February gold (GCG8) is up 0.26% at $1,290.90 a troy ounce at the time of publication. Tepid activity in equities and a slipping U.S. dollar are contributing factors to recent advances in the perceived safe-haven metal. If gold closes up today, it would mark a fifth straight day of gains. Investors are turning to precious metals with the closeout of 2017 approaching and setting up positions for the new year.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window is producing rising positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $122.14, up 0.30% at the time of publication. Today’s predicted low is $121.77 (± 0.23) and the predicted high is $122.24 (± 0.23). The predicted close today is $122.10. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Yields are sliding today following a decreased consumer-confidence index for December. The figure dropped to 122.1 from a previous reading of 128.6. Although the monthly figure is down, confidence levels are reaching highs not seen since 2000. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 2.18% at 2.42% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see initial positive signals turn downward in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.07% moves to -0.27% within four trading sessions and remain negative from there. The ETF is priced at $126.68 at the time of publication, up 1.23%. The predicted close today is $125.83 with a low and high of $124.49 (± 0.21) and $126.00 (± 0.21), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is up 0.39% from the open at 10.29 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The predicted close today is 10.10 with a negative vector of -1.98%, which fluctuates in mostly negative territory throughout the forecast. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 8.66 (± 0.20) and 10.79 (± 0.25), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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