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Markets rose impressively on the first trading day of 2020 as both global and U.S. markets record gains to end the day. Both the Dow Jones and Nasdaq recorded gains of over 1% while the S&P rose by 10 points while European and Asian markets, apart from Japan, closed in the green. This week, President Trump announced the White House will hold the “phase one” deal signing ceremony on January 15th, which surely supported markets today as well as the latest news from the Chinese central bank, which reduced its reserve ratio for commercial banks. Gold, oil, and the dollar also rose today, although oil started the day lower, while U.S. treasuries dipped. Current short-term support and resistance levels are $315-$325 for the SPY and we will look to buy near $315 level. We remain bullish on the market short term and expect shallow pullbacks going into next earnings season. Some further volatility could be expected and we encourage readers to retain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
U.S. stocks started off 2020 with nice gains as all three major U.S. indices recorded gains. The latest announcement regarding the U.S.-China trade deal boosted optimism and global markets as January 15th has been set as the day for the signing of the deal. While the date has not yet been confirmed by both sides, the announcement from President Trump has supplied plenty of optimism. Other key events this month will include 2020’s first earnings season and FOMC decision as well as the January 31st Brexit deadline. Overseas, China started off 2020 with a reserve cut for their central bank which boosted markets. Key U.S. economic reports releasing next week include November trade deficit and factory orders, December employment data, and monthly wholesale inventories.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term positive outlook. Today’s vector figure of +0.49% moves to +0.59% in four trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On December 20th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Eli Lily and Company (LLY). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading, with signals meant to last for 1-2 days.
Trade Breakdown
LLY entered its forecasted Strategy A Entry 1 price range $129.39(± 1.03) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price of $132.16 in the last hour of trading the following trading day in the final hour of trading. The Stop Loss price was set at $132.16.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does not have a position in the featured symbol, MRK. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured symbol for Friday is Seagate Technology (STX). STX is showing a mixed vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for current-day predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $60.19 at the time of publication, with a +0.84% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $61.66 per barrel, down 0.10% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $12.81 at the time of publication. Vector figures show +0.14% today, which turns to +1.13% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is flat at $1,518.810 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $143.95, at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.11% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.28% at 1.88% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 0.61% at 2.33% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.01% moves to-0.04% in four sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $12.47 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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