Ahead of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, all three major U.S. indices closed in the green to open the week. Despite today’s losses, the Dow booked an impressive monthly gain for the month of October at nearly 14%. The two-day FOMC meeting is due to wrap on Wednesday with a policy update announcement from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Beyond the Fed update, this week is set to feature key employment data. Look out for Aflac, Booking, CVS, eBay, Humana, Qualcomm, Moderna, and DraftKings earnings to release this week. Globally, both Asian and European Markets traded with mixed results. China’s factory data for October showed a slowdown in construction and services activity, contributing to negative market sentiment.
The $CVS, $AMD, and $SBUX earnings this week – as well as FOMC decision and unemployment data – can influence the next move in the market. On Monday, President Joe Biden plans to speak on oil companies regarding their recent record-setting profits as high gas prices continue to weigh on the economy. With the VIX near the $26 level, we are watching the overhead resistance levels in the SPY, at $390 and then $400. The $SPY support is at $380 and then $370. We expect the market to continue the current rally for the next 4-8 weeks. The short-term market is overbought and can pull back. We would be a buyer into any further sell-offs and encourages subscribers not to chase the market to the downside or upside. Likewise, we encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
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West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $86.21 per barrel, down1.92%, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $72.82 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.50% at $1636.50 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $153.16 at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.29% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up at 4.054% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up at 4.201% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $25.88 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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