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Markets are approaching record highs today ahead of this week’s signing of the U.S.-China partial trade deal and the start of fourth-quarter corporate earnings season. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is expected in D.C. on Wednesday to sign the “phase one” deal while plans for continued talks are also expected to be announced during the four-day visit. Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season will kick off this week with major-bank data from Citigroup, J.P.Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and more; additional economic reports to focus on this week include Core CPI, Retail Sales, and Wednesday’s release of the Fed’s Beige Book. We remain bullish on the short-term market and will continue looking to buy when the SPY is near $320. With current support and resistance levels at $320-330, we expect some shallow pullbacks going into this earnings season. We encourage Market Commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Major U.S. indices recorded impressive gains today following a strong weekly return last week which saw all three major indices in the green. With cooling tensions in the Middle East, focus now turns to the U.S.-China partial trade deal signing which should take place on Wednesday. A Chinese delegation, including Vice Premier Liu He, will be in the White House to sign the deal as well as announce additional trade talks. Globally, Asian markets closed higher while European markets were mixed. This week, major economic reports to monitor include Core CPI, Federal Budget, December Retail Sales, as well as additional housing and jobs data. The Federal Beige Book will release on Wednesday and provide a good gauge and reading of current economic conditions. Also, key this week will be the start of fourth-quarter corporate earnings. Earnings will begin, as usual, with major banks Citigroup, J.P.Morgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, and Wells Fargo announcing Q4 data while other key reports this week include Delta Air Lines, CSX, United Health, and JBHT.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term positive outlook. Today’s vector figure of -0.20% moves to +0.89% in four trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On January 10th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Apple Inc. (AAPL). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading, with signals meant to last for 1-2 days.
Trade Breakdown
AAPL entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $309.63(± 1.05) in its third hour of trading that day and passed through its Target price of $312.73 in the second hour of trading the following trading. The Stop Loss price was set at $306.53.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, MA. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured symbol for Tuesday is MasterCard Inc. (MA). MA is showing a mixed vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for current-day predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $311.17 at the time of publication, with a +0.14% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $58.06 per barrel, down 1.66% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $12.2 at the time of publication. Vector figures show 0.51% today, which turns to -1.05% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.72% at $1,548.70 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $145.82, at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.31% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 1.54% at 1.85% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 1.10% at 2.30% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.19% moves to -0.68% in four sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $12.32 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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