Markets Maintain Gains Ahead of Central Bank Decisions

September 11, 2019
By Vlad Karpel

Major U.S. indices are on track to close in the green today following positive economic releases and easing global tensions. Producer price index data, released before market open today, rose 0.1% in August or 1.8% in the past 12 months. Tomorrow, the European Central Bank will meet and likely deliver an interest rate cut while next week the U.S. Federal Reserve could also deliver a rate cut during their Federal Open Market Committee. Aurora earnings are due after the market closes today while tomorrow look for Core CPI and Federal Budget reports. The market has broken out of the August range of $280-$295 but we do not see the potential for the market to overshoot all-time high level at $302, with the SPY is currently trading between $294-$302. Whether this is a true breakout for a bull market or a fault breakout is still to be determined but remain in our belief that market is range-bound and not a true breakout until we see other key asset classes, such as TLT and DXY for example, breakout out of their existing trends. We encourage Market Commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions as further volatility is expected. We will look to buy when SPY is near $282 and sell near $300. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

Markets are maintaining gains following a strong start to the week with all three major U.S. indices in the green. Global trade clarity and solid economic data are supporting markets ahead of tomorrow’s European Central Bank meeting where it is widely expected interest rates would be cut. Similarly, next week FOMC members will meet for a two-day meeting where interest rate cuts will also be considered. Overseas, Asian markets closed to mixed results while European markets notched small gains. Latest U.S.-China developments have both sides meeting in D.C. for negotiations in early October. China exempt several goods from their latest round of tariffs and will look to announce further exemptions soon while the U.S. plans to announce more tariffs on October 1st. If no agreement is reached in October, both sides could increase tariffs in December. 

Latest Producer Price Index data continued the trend of positive economic reports following solid employment and Beige Book data last week. Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, and Federal Budget data for August are due tomorrow while Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment Index, and Business Inventories will release on Friday. Earnings remain light this week with Aurora Cannabis reporting after market close today while Oracle and Broadcom report tomorrow. 

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows mostly positive signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.00% moves to +3.18% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6pm, CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  


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Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On September 6th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for TJX Companies (TJX). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.

Trade Breakdown

TJX entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $55.77 (± 0.38) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $56.33 in the first hour of trading that day. The Stop Loss price was set at $55.21


Thursday Morning Featured Symbol

*Please note: At the time of publication we do not own the featured symbol, PEG. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks,  please click here.

Our featured symbol for Thursday is Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG). PEG is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.  

The stock is trading at $61.69 at the time of publication, up 0.88% from the open with a +0.82% vector figure.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $55.94 per barrel, down 2.54% from the open, at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows negative signals. The fund is trading at $11.98 at the time of publication. Vector figures show -0.97% today, which turns -1.31% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Gold

The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.33% at $1,504.20 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mostly negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $140.18 at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.49% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.75% at 1.75% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 0.39% at 2.22% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.55% moves to -2.57% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 3.42% at $14.68 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $13.88 with a vector of -13.59%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Sign up now for Lifetime Access and pay less than the cost of just 1 year and lock in …
PERMANENT UNLIMITED ACCESS!

  • Subscribe now for less than the cost of one year at the regular rate!

  • With 36 month trailing gains of 1,314%, and an 75% win-rate, a lifetime Membership could easily turn $100,000 into $1,414,472

  • Tradespoon Premium is the only trading service you’ll ever need.

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