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Today, U.S. stocks are modestly trading lower with all eyes on Fed Chair Powell’s second congressional appearance, as well as Walmart, Nvidia, and Viacom earnings. Doubt over the “phase one” U.S.-China deal has grown, and weighed on markets, in recent days with little new developments on either end, although the latest comments from the Chinese Commerce Ministry indicated both sides were communicating and holding “in-depth” discussions. Tomorrow, October retail and industrial data will be released, while next week look for last month’s FOMC minutes. SPY overhead resistance remains $310 and we will look to buy when the SPY is near $297 level. There is little evidence we will retest 200 days MA, and we expect further volatility as well as shallow pullbacks. We encourage Market Commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
All three major U.S. indices were trading lower in early morning trading today, with only the S&P rebounding in the afternoon. Third-quarter earnings season has all but wrapped up which now turns investor attention toward the upcoming FOMC minutes as well as any U.S.-China trade deal developments. Today’s big earnings release included Walmart before market open, while Nvidia and Applied Materials are due after market close. Walmart saw shares dip following a corporate earnings report that had the company meet profit expectations. Yesterday, Cisco released disappointing earnings which pushed shares lower, currently down 7%. Viacom is seeing shares rise over 2% after the media conglomerate reported above expectations before the market open today. Next week’s FOMC minutes will headline all economic reports and should provide good insight into last month’s interest rate cut. The latest Fed policy update featured the third straight interest rate cut this year. Also releasing next week will be October housing starts, permits, and home sales, as well as key November manufacturing data.
U.S.-China news has severely slowed down this week, souring optimism slightly though positive comments continue coming from both parties. The Chinese Commerce ministry indicated both sides were holding “in-depth” discussions regarding their next steps, while officials from both nations look to schedule the next round of negotiations. “Phase one” of the trade deal should feature a rollback plan for tariffs while also paving the way for further deals. Globally, Asian markets were mixed while European markets closed in the red.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows mostly positive signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.01% moves to +0.35% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On October 31st, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading. Signals are meant to last for 1-2 days as long as vector confirms the same direction as the original pick
Trade Breakdown
ITW entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $170.21 (± 1.03) in its first hour of trading the following trading day (11/1/19) and passed through its Target price of $171.91 in the first hour of trading the next day (11/2/19). The Stop Loss price was set at $168.51.
*Please note: At the time of publication we do not own the featured symbol, NEM. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured symbol for Friday is Newmont Mining Corp (NEM). NEM is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $37.58 at the time of publication, up 0.56% from the open with a +0.72% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $56.86 per barrel, down 0.46% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows negative signals. The fund is trading at $11.88 at the time of publication, down 0.67% from the open. Vector figures show +0.01% today, which turns -1.62% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.55% at $1,471.50 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $138.62, up 0.46% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.40% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 3.38% at 1.83% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 2.25% at 2.31% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.10% moves to -0.24% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 0.92% at $13.12 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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