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On the second to last trading session of 2019, all three major U.S. indices closed in the red but remain on track to finish the year with full-year gains of over 20%. Today’s session was the worst of December but follows several record days for all three indices. On Saturday, a Chinese delegation will head to D.C. to sign the partial trade deal which was agreed upon earlier in the month. The deal includes both tariff cuts and purchase commitments from both sides. Asian markets closed higher, both in China and Hong Kong, while European markets finished the day in the red. Markets will be closed on Wednesday during the New Year’s Day holiday and will resume on Thursday. Current short-term support and resistance levels are $315-$325 for the SPY and we will look to buy near $315 level. Volatility is expected and we encourage readers to retain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Today, major U.S. indices Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow Jones saw shares lower on ahead of the final trading day of 2019. This past year, major indices were able to record solid gains throughout. Full-year gains for the S&P should come in near 28%-29%, 22 for the Dow, and over 30% for the Nasdaq. Strong economic reports throughout the year, along with several key mergers and impressive earnings, along with the latest U.S.-China agreement have helped markets rise impressively. Today’s will be the worst trading session of December as the last two weeks saw numerous records for both U.S. indices and markets. This Saturday, Chinese Vice-Premier is due to travel to D.C. to sign the partial deal which will roll back tariffs and initiate purchase commitments from both sides. China is said to commit to purchasing more U.S. agricultural goods while several Chinese imports are to do receive tariff rollbacks.
The final trading week of 2019 will be a shortened week as Wednesday’s New Year’s Day holiday will see markets closed world-wide. Economic reports will be slim this week as Thursday will feature weekly labor data but no significant earnings or major reports are due. While the first week of 2020 will be a quiet one, January is already shaping up to be a busy and crucial month. First, earnings season should begin in mid-January with major banks and retailers reporting data, followed by the first FOMC of 2020 during the final week of January. Also occurring during that week will be the latest Brexit deadline. With each event holding major market significance, investors and traders alike are urged to monitor these events and any additional developments.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term positive outlook. Today’s vector figure of +0.48% moves to +1.76% in four trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On December 20th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Eli Lily and Company (LLY). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading, with signals meant to last for 1-2 days.
Trade Breakdown
LLY entered its forecasted Strategy A Entry 1 price range $129.39(± 1.03) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price of $132.16 in the last hour of trading the following trading day in the final hour of trading. The Stop Loss price was set at $132.16.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, MRK. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured symbol for Tuesday is Merck& Company (MRK). MRK is showing a mixed vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for current-day predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $91.03 at the time of publication, with a +0.21% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $61.66 per barrel, down 0.10% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $12.91 at the time of publication. Vector figures show -0.30% today, which turns -0.09% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is flat at $1,518.810 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $142.63, at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.09% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.28% at 1.88% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 0.61% at 2.33% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.05% moves to +0.25% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $14.82 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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