After reaching record levels last week, markets continue to trade higher behind additional U.S.-China developments, easing of global tensions, and strong economic reports. The latest reports have China cutting tariffs on key goods in the tech and pharmaceutical sectors. With this latest development, progress and communication between China and the U.S. appear to be ongoing providing optimism which is also supporting global markets. Boeing shares are seeing nice gains, supporting the DOW, after it was announced CEO Dennis Muilenburg will resign at the end of the year. On Tuesday, the market will be open for the first half of the day and closed on Wednesday; during the shortened trade week, no major economic reports or earnings are due. We will look to buy when the SPY is near $307, keeping in mind the current short-term support and resistance levels are $315-$320. Additional volatility is expected and we encourage Market Commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
All three major U.S. indices are on track to close in the green after the latest U.S.-China developments signaled progress and continued communication. The most recent development has China reportedly removing tariffs from several goods such as pork, high-end tech, and select pharmaceuticals. With the latest breakthrough, it appears both sides are ready to move forward on a partial trade deal which will, in time, lay the groundwork for additional deals. Both sides are looking to schedule additionals talks and will likely continue negotiations in the new year. Also impacting global markets in the new year will be the January 31st Brexit deadline, which could be an improvement from the last Brexit deadline due to the partisan support following their last general election. Global markets are trading mostly higher with the U.K., France, Japan, and Hong Kong markets all closing in the green.
Economic news impacting markets today also include Boeing CEO resignation and November data. After a troubling year for Boeing which featured the Max jet 737 controversy, Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg will resign at the end of the year. This strongly pushed Boeing shares higher, in turn supporting the Dow. November data for durable goods orders came in lower than expected, 2% lower, while November housing data also underwhelmed, slightly missing expectations. During the shortened trade week, no key economic reports or earnings will release while next week we will also see a shortened trade week.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term positive outlook. Today’s vector figure of +0.59% moves to +3.59% in four trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On December 20th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Eli Lily and Company (LLY). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading, with signals meant to last for 1-2 days.
LLY entered its forecasted Strategy A Entry 1 price range $129.39(± 1.03) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price of $132.16 in the last hour of trading the following trading day in the final hour of trading. The Stop Loss price was set at $132.16.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does not have a position in the featured symbol, CVS. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured symbol for Tuesday is Microsoft (MSFT). MSFT is showing a neutral vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for current-day predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $157.63 at the time of publication, up 0.14% from the open with a +1.55% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $60.63 per barrel, up 0.33% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mostly positive signals. The fund is trading at $12.69 at the time of publication. Vector figures show +0.39% today, which turns +2.56% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.57% at $1,489.50 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mostly positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $139.93, at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.03% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.69% at 1.93% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 0.40% at 2.36% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see overall negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.11% moves to -1.51% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 1.68% at $12.72 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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