July 29, 2014
By Vlad Karpel
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Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post!

A few weeks back, I wrote about how Retail ($XRT) was facing significant downward pressure. So, we decided to watch $84 on the sector Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) to see how it would continue to perform.

While Retail held steady at that level over the last month, yesterday it was tested further as Amazon ($AMZN) dropped -$25 over the last two sessions. Not good at all for the $XRT, as Amazon makes up ~9 percent of it.

Should other big box names, such as Walmart ($WMT) and Home Depot ($HD), come under fire we could see further downward pressure in this sector. Should it happen, that would cast a dark cloud over the general market as a whole.

On the flip side, we’ve seen a huge pop in Coal, specifically the ETF ($KOL), which finally broke upward after a period of stubborn resistance over the last few months.

The catalyst may have been the action in China we discussed last week. Whatever the reason for Coal’s hot streak, it is a sector that, at least for now, has rejoined the bulls.

See you next time at the Corner!

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Share this …Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post! A few weeks […]

July 28, 2014
By Vlad Karpel
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Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post!

The gap in performance between the Large Caps ($SPY) and the Small Caps ($IWM) is the largest we’ve seen in over three years. If the higher Beta (domestically-centric stocks) continue to break, then a serious red flag is in the making for traders.

The last time we saw this kind of setup was in July of 2011, and that was when the biggest pullback in four years occurred. On a positive note, China is leading Emerging Markets ($EEM) to the upside.

As we’ve discussed previously, if we continue to see Small Caps weaken, this could result in money cycling out of established markets and into emerging markets.

Another impressive recent move was Gold Miners ($GDX), which in spite of a strong dollar has been a robust performer. If further geopolitical unrest continues and uncertainty grows in the General Market ($SPY and $QQQ), not only will the Gold Miners ($GDX) have an additional catalyst, Meta ($GLD) could catch the upside swing as well.

See you next time at the Corner!

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Share this …Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post! The gap in […]

July 27, 2014
By Vlad Karpel
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Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post!

Kenny Rogers said it best in “The Gambler”:

You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em
Know when to walk away and know when to runam
You never count your money when you’re sittin’ at the table
There’ll be time enough for countin’ when the dealing’s done.

Looks like the Bulls are not done “dealing.” But, if you are a credit spread strategist, here is my advice about taking some money off the table:

Let’s say you sell a credit spread for a $1 and it’s trading for $0.50. Well, it is time to take that money off the table and run to
find a new opportunity. This is the way I have managed trades for over a decade and it has severed this gambler well.

See you next time at the Corner!

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Share this …Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post! Kenny Rogers said […]

July 25, 2014
By Vlad Karpel
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Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post!

The Bears must feel like they are in a padded room with “White Lines” by Grandmaster Flash blaring in the background: “Get higher, baby!” (The ’80s were supposedly the decade of GREED.)

I had to go there since we are getting to levels on a monthly basis in the NASDAQ ($COMP) that we haven’t seen since 2000.

The bulls are having fun at this stage. But, for those who are looking to jump in and ride this market at these levels…. Well, it is
tricky. It’s just not that easy. The Dow ($INDU) best represents this mentality. It has been trading sideways during the earnings cycle.

Right now, we are managing the winners closely. One sector that is starting to show some potential challenge is the home builders ($XHB).
They have been trading on the lower end of a range. Now, this sector has been a big consolidation at this point. But a break of ~$30 would be a red flag for this sector.

Look at the metals market: Man, did the $GOLD lose it’s luster fast! With the EU currencies all under pressure, it makes some sense. But the gold bugs need to watch the
$1280 support level. A break at this level in $GOLD would be a negative for the shiny metal.

Join us today at noon for a webinar on critical metrics and tools we use to assess and manage these types of
risks.

See you next time at the Corner!

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Share this …Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post! The Bears must […]

July 23, 2014
By Vlad Karpel
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Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post!

We like to look at what is lagging a market, and one segment is the Uranium ($URA), which at this point has been bouncing off support at $15.

We want to see a break above $20 on $URA to confirm upside breakout.

Other names in this space that are already on the move, most notably $CCJ and $DNN, which are 35 percent of the Uranium ETF $URA.

We can watch their peers to see if they are going to try to catch up.

Turning to the Precious Metals, $SLV and $GLD, have stalled. Specifically, silver has contracted. Take a look at a chart and add a 20 period Bollinger Band. Which means that $SLV is stuck in a ~$.80 range, a break above $20.25 or $19.75 to get us to think trend change is in play.

See you next time at the Corner!

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Share this …Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post! We like to […]

July 22, 2014
By Vlad Karpel
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Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post!

Statistics 101 tells us that the markets will revert to the mean. But the age-old question is: When?

Well, it was not yesterday. The Nasdaq ($QQQ) finished on the plus side, and the S&P hovered right around break-even.

With volatility up, the Long bonds ($TLT) up, and the market holding pat, the prudent trader will keep the powder dry and start to build up some cash. In these frothy times, you can position for only taking high probability,70- to 80-percent in your favor, type of opportunities.

For the Bulls, take a look at Michael Kors. $KORS has already been making a solid short term move after a pullback and, based on our scoring, has the highest score for 1- to 3-year period.

For the Bears, take a look at Transocean. $RIG has the highest probability of making a potential bearish move over the next 50 days.

See you next time at the Corner!

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Share this …Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post! Statistics 101 tells […]

July 18, 2014
By Vlad Karpel
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Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post!

We have been seeing the trader’s appetite shift when it comes to taking on risk. Over the last couple of weeks, the small caps ($IWM) have fallen out of favor.

It is clear that traders are cycling out of the higher beta stocks. But they are not rotating into the higher-yield, more secure stocks as the Dow ($INDU) established lower lows.

Now, this is expiration week, but we saw action that I have not seen in over 2 months. Specifically, we had the $SPY down 1.14 percent, and I have not seen a 1 percent move in a day in … well, too long.

With volatility ($VIX) soaring and major trends challenged, being nimble is the course of action.

See you next time at the Corner!

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Share this …Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post! We have been […]

July 16, 2014
By Vlad Karpel
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Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post!

Thought it would be fun to highlight the “Death Cross” in Coal ETF, $KOL.

The ETF has been trading below the 50- and 200-day moving average. The 50-day is almost dipping below 200, the bearish death cross. Will keep an eye on this move.

On the currency side, when Yellen spoke the Euro ($XEU) broke. This break help put strength back in the buck ($UUP), which also put pressure on gold ($GLD).

Finally, retail ($XRT) has come under pressure. A break of $82.5 on the retail ETF could turn the sector bearish.

See you next time at the Corner!

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Share this …Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post! Thought it would […]

July 15, 2014
By Vlad Karpel
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Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post!

The small caps are holding, with the $IWM still lagging but not under pressure.

Not only are industrials ($XLI) bouncing, but they are getting ready to break upside resistance. The main catalyst is the move in $GE, which is the largest of that index.

One note for bond traders: The yield curve is converging. We need to keep an eye on this move, going long ten-year vs. short 30-year could be in play.

I will have more to come on some other pairs trades.

See you next time at the Corner!

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Share this …Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post! The small caps […]

July 14, 2014
By Vlad Karpel
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Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post!

This is like a broken record: The large caps ($SPY & $QQQ) bounce after two days of weakness. The Small Caps ($IWM) are lagging, but this is just not enough to put the fear in the market bulls.

Speaking of fear: The volatility ($VIX) just couldn’t hold the pop.

Going forward, I will focus on the small caps, especially if the higher beta index will break resistance at 116 on the $IWM.

I am also watching the strength in the Euro ($XEO), looking for a break above 137, which would cause further weakness in the Dollar ($UUP) and another catalyst for upside continuation.

With earnings and the fact that we are on extremes, I’m going to be very disciplined on deployment of risk capital.

See you next time at the Corner!

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Share this …Welcome to Karpel’s Corner. This is where I throw out my thoughts on the markets and share some of my favorite strategies. I keep it market-focused, and never miss an opportunity to teach trading strategies and commentate on the latest trends affecting the financial markets. Hope you enjoy today’s post! This is like […]

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