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Futures and indexes are down today as treasury notes skyrocketed behind rising interest rates; the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose above 3.2%, a multi-year high. The Dow is currently looking at its worst day in three months, while the Nasdaq is down over 1% and S&P currently projecting 10 out 11 sectors to close in the negative. The large selloff today is likely due to the rise in interest rates, announced in last week’s FOMC. Interest-sensitive sectors are on the move, feeling the brunt of the interest rate hike are TLT, XLU, SPY, XLK, and XLF. Investors should not chase market. Short-term upside looks slim until we encounter another market correction. Still, the market continues to present resilience in the face of many political and global issues that would typically seem susceptible to market influence. SPY Seasonal Chart forecast is shown below:
Unlike yesterday, where the financial sector underperformed, financials were the sole standout in the slumping S&P today. Communication services struggled, led by an almost 3% loss for Facebook, and an above 3% loss for Netflix. Google also struggled and fell 3%, while both Microsoft and Apple flirted with 2% drops. Financials, as they have historically done so in times of rising yields and rates, are holding steady gains. Other big-market movers include Barnes & Noble Inc. which rose over 20% after announcing a formal review process to “evaluate strategic alternatives” for the bookseller, while Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. dropped after they agreed to develop and commercialize new treatments with Janssen Pharmaceuticals. Pier 1 Imports Inc. shares also dropped, around 2%, after they reported missing expectations for second-quarter revenue.
September Labor report is due tomorrow which will present employment numbers, public sector jobs, and more. It will be interesting to see how job numbers match up with the current sell-off powered by rising interest rates. This year, economic data has easily trumped financial pessimism or trade-adjacent concerns for the market and if the trend continues the sell-off should not hold much longer. Globally, Asian and European markets are down today.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.04% moves to -0.10% in five trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,920.57. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On October 2nd, our ActiveTrader service produced a bearish recommendation for Weyerhaeuser Co (WY). ActiveTrader included in all Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for intraday trading.
Trade Breakdown
WY entered the forecasted Entry 1 price range of $32.14 (± 0.14) in its second to the last hour of trading and moved through its Target price of $31.82 in its first hour of trading the following day. The Stop Loss was set at $32.46.
See how we traded in volatile conditions and what you might expect in our next Live Trading Room. During recent volatility, we held Live Trading Room Session, on August 30th, where we had some great trades below!
| Symbol | Net Gain% |
| ADBE (OPTION) | 46.34.% |
| MUR | 60.61% |
| ADSK | 32.45% |
| LLY | 19.01% |
| XLF (OPTION) | -100.00% |
Our Live Trading Room is open every trading day from 9:15 am Eastern Time for the first hour of trading, but these Live Trading Sessions are only available for Premium Members.
We wanted to share the recording with you so you can see the profits you might be missing- even during volatile markets.
Our featured stock for Friday is Lilly Eli & Co (LLY). LLY is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
The stock is trading at $51.82 at the time of publication, up 0.38% from the open with a +0.29% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
Oil
West Texas Intermediate for November delivery (CLX8) is priced at $74.46 per barrel, down 2.57% from the open, at the time of publication. Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $15.73 at the time of publication, down 2.18% from the open. Vector figures show 0.52% today, which turns +4.07% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for December gold (GCZ8) is down 0.04% at $1,202.40 at the time of publication. Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows all negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $113.48, up 0.05% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.44% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Treasuries
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.28% at 3.20% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 0.11% at 3.348% at the time of publication. Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.14% moves to -0.16% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 23.94% at $14.39 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $12.20 with a vector of +5.69%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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