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Trading Guide

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Trading Guide

Our platform uses quant science to make it easy for the self directed investor—whether novice or experienced—to find and manage high quality, high return trade opportunities.

Our software leverages predictive analytics and hyper-fast data processing to find patterns in voluminous stock data, winnowing out trade ideas with the highest potential for profit; our analysts corroborate these ideas with technical and fundamental research to produce actionable intelligence.

Our platform and tools allow you to:

  • Generating custom trade ideas
  • Perform fundamental and technical research
  • Assess seasonality with charts of historical performance of a stock or ETF and forecast future performance
  • Generate lists of the most overperforming or underperforming (bullish/bearish) stocks, according to our algorithms.
  • Perform advanced analysis and rebalancing with our Portfolio Management tools
  • Enhance your trading skills with educational training videos and workshops.
  • Receive expert alerts advising you of our highest quality trade opportunities, when our stringent criteria are met.

Our community of traders consist of a wide range of experience, portfolio sizes and trading styles. Our platform is built to serve any self-directed investor, whether just starting out as a novice or a sophisticated trader with years of experience.

Our platform provides a depth of predictive precision that is virtually unmatched for retail investors. This is due to the sophistication of the platform's underlying algorithm, built by Tradespoon’s founder- Vlad Karpel. Our models take into account options volatility, statistical correlations with indexes and proprietary technical and fundamental analysis conducted in real time, among other factors. We leverage advanced artificial neural networks which constantly self-learn in order to apply the best-fitting models to a particular stock or ETF in order to generate highly accurate signals.

Tradespoon caters to novice traders with a wealth of educational content, training modules, regularly occurring workshops and special webinars. Our dedicated support team is available for assistance and guidance as well.

We recommend holding stocks until the target gain or target loss limits are reached. We recommend that you enter into target limit and stop loss orders when you enter your positions. However, the timing of trades ultimately depends on you and your risk tolerance.

The Tradespoon platform helps generate trade ideas that can be used to make stock and option trades. However, Tradespoon provides absolutely no guarantees on stock or option performance. You use our platform at your own risk. When to place trades, and enter and exit positions, is entirely up to you.

As a special bonus, we'll periodically alert subscribers about our highest quality trade picks, based on market conditions and our stringent criteria, including price momentum, recent news, price and fundamentals. The alert may consist of one or more of the following:

  • A stock trade pick
  • An option trade pick, which may be based upon the same underlying stock (to minimize cash outlay)
  • An option spread trade pick — two options, each with different strike prices but the same target gain and stop loss recommendations, based upon the same underlying stock (to mitigate risk)

A spread position means that you buy and sell an equal number of options of the same underlying stock but with different strike prices or expiration dates.

Each recommendation includes a direction (long or short), with exact entry and exit prices.

When you receive an alert...

1. Consider trading a pick as long as the market price is not higher than

  • 1-2% from Tradespoon's recommended entry price (for stock picks)
  • 5% from Tradespoon's recommended entry price (for option and option spread picks)

Options also include an expiration date, after which they cannot be traded.

2. Determine the volume of shares you wish to trade

  • If you are new to trading, we suggest allocating 3% of your portfolio to each pick and holding no more than 4-6 positions at a time

3. Trade the pick(s) on the online trading platform of your choice and, to limit risk,

  • Enter a limit order for the target profit recommendation included in the Tradespoon alert
  • Enter a stop order target loss recommendation included in the Tradespoon alert

Not necessarily. Tradespoon is not a portfolio construction service, but rather an idea generation platform. You should seek advice from registered wealth managers to determine how to best construct a portfolio that meets your investment objectives. Owners of smaller portfolios may want to consider hedging their portfolio to ensure that they do not lose a significant amount of a portfolio when the market is in correction. One way to accomplish this is to only trade bullish stocks that have a Bull Momentum value of 8 or 9, according to the Tradespoon Bulls tool. For bearish stocks, we recommend trading those which have a Bear Momentum rating of 2 or 3. We also suggest that, when in the bull market, you execute one sell recommendation for every 2 buy recommendations.

Tradespoon recommends that you have an equal number of bullish and bearish positions—meaning an equal amount of long and short positions. We also recommend having approximately 4 to 6 stock positions open to spread your risk. Above all, we always recommend that you only participate in the picks that are aligned with trades you feel comfortable making.

Our performance page is updated when our options spread position for any given premium member pick expires. We are using options spread strategy to determine target gain or stop loss. Stock pick returns are updated at the same time as when our options spread position has reached its target gain or stop loss level.

Your satisfaction with the Tradespoon platform is 100% guaranteed. If you're not happy with your subscription for any reason, you can cancel within the first 30 days of your initial purchase and receive a full refund. No questions asked.

Our Proprietary Research Reports are informed by our proprietary model for stock analysis. These reports have a long-term view of a given stock and are not affected by earnings announcements.

Whenever we provide a premium member pick, all technical analysis and fundamental analysis that factor into the trading decision is up-to-date on the day of that pick. However, a period of 1 - 2 weeks is required after the release of the pick to update the Proprietary Research Report’s analysis for that particular stock. Building our model for intrinsic stock value takes longer and does not change on a monthly basis.

For winners, our main criteria is rapid movement of the stock to the upside, which is usually 3-5% in 1-2 weeks time.

For longer-term trading: We use our scoring models in our Equity Research tools, which you can see if you hover over the short term trend column. If the scoring changes to downtrend, we exit the trade and try to limit losses to 50% of the original Stop Loss or less. If models still point to the uptrend, we either roll the position to next month or wait 5-10 days until expiration to close the position.

For short-term trading: We use our 10-day forecasts in the Stock Forecast Toolbox. If you see the vector trends changing against your position, consider exiting position and limiting losses to 50% of the original Stop Loss or less.

The short term trend consists of 2 different quant models that run independently for 20, 30,40 and 50 days forecast.

The information you see is the output generated by our predictive models which forecasts a stock’s price movement for 20,30,40 and 50 days from now.

The probability and accuracy figures show how accurate the model’s price predictions are, based on historical backtest analysis.

When all models show the same price trend, we will add the stock to the Bulls or Bears convictions lists.

We recommend to get into a position if there is at least 30-40 days left until expiration.

We would allow 10% slippage on our trade recommendations. For example, on a $2.00 spread, we would allow $0.20 slippage.

The most important criteria is cash. If you are not overleveraged, you can allow slippage. If you do not have 20% in cash, avoid slippage and wait for the trade to come to you, particularly in a volatile market.

Our tools predict prices for stocks and ETFs up to 180 days, using self-learning algorithms which are part of an artificial neural network. We show you if a stock will be higher or lower by a certain date.

Broker dealers can not show you this information because they are regulated and one can interpret this information as advice, which broker dealers cannot legally provide.

This is why you will never see a scanner on a registered/regulated entity that will predict prices by a certain date.

The accuracy figures on the short term trend data shows the results of backtests using the model that predicted the stock price, based on the time range.

The higher the accuracy, the higher percent of the time our predictive model made accurate predictions based on the historical data.

Rules for hedging your positions:

1. 15-20% of your exposure to the market should be in a hedge.

This is the most important rule. Tradespoon does not know how much exposure you have in the market nor do we know how many open positions you have at the same time.

Our daily videos for each pick explain how to look at the position's delta value and based on that amount, we enter a VIX hedge (bearish positions or sell out of the money call spread against our long positions)

2. We provide members with specific entry and exit prices for both short positions and hedges. We also record daily videos with entry and exit prices for the hedges.

Each of our trade recommendations include a target gain and a stop loss. In many cases, we do not wait for these values to hit, nor do we wait for expiration. We close our recommendations 10-20 days prior to options expiration. We also close our trades if the stock moves 2-5% in our favor in a short period of time. When we close the position for these reasons, we denote it with "Adjusted Target Gain".

The intraday predictions are generated in 5-minute intervals for the next hour. This data is updated every 5 minutes during market hours.

The 10-day predictions are generated in 1-day intervals for the next 10 days. This data is updated daily, after market close at 6 p.m. CST.

The 6-month predictions are generated in 1-month intervals for the next 6 months. This data is updated once a month, on the first of each month.

These tools use different algorithms in their calculations. The Seasonal Charts tool is created to have the highest probability of success for 40-75 days predictions, while the Stock Forecast Tool is designed to predict short term support and resistance for the next 1-10 days. Since these are two independent modules, they will sometimes show different results.

The Seasonal Charts tool is forecasting trends for one year’s worth of data, while the Stock Forecast Toolbox generates forecasts for intraday, 10-day and 6-month periods. Because these two tools are optimized for these different time horizons, they will sometimes show differing predictions. Ideally, you would want to consider the forecasts which fit your specific trading style and length of positions held.

We update the 10 days predictions in the Stock Forecast Toolbox after each trading session around 6 p.m CST. the Seasonal Charts data is updated each Sunday. While market is open, the predictions do not change.

Company screener shows you annual return of the S&P 500 stocks if you used every buy and sell signal you saw on the 10 day forecast for the past 12 months. This is a hypothetical return based on the backtest we perform on a weekly basis. 6 month predictions show you the trend for the next 6 months irrespective of the buy or sell signals.

So, sometimes returns on the company screener do not correspond to the 6 month predictions. They are derived using different models and are intended to show different information.

The process you should be the following: Use the company screener to find stocks in an uptrend and are highly predictable based on annual return. Then, use the 10 day predictions to see when to enter trades based on the current 10 day trend and NOT annual return shown on company screener. 6 month predictions will show you the long term trend in case you hold your position for a long period of time.

10 day predictions on the Stock Forecast Tool are based on daily prices and reflect changes based on the past 200 days.

Hourly predictions are based on 5 minutes bars over the past 5 days.

Hence, long term and short term trends can be different just like on daily and 5 minutes charts.

Also, 6 month predictions are based on monthly data and are updated on the first of every month.

The Stock Forecast Toolbox is a great indicator for current trend and for turning points in the market. When the market switches direction from an oversold market to an overbought market- or vice versa- in a few days, our model will reflect current market conditions.

In most cases, the market follows our predicted range. When the market or individual stocks close outside of our predicted daily range, it often indicates an impending reversal of the current direction.

How long your position is held, and how much gain you are looking for, depends on your trading plan. Trades performed in our Live Trading Room and Premium Member Picks will have different holding times and investment amounts.

In our Live Trading Room, we will hold positions until market close or for a couple of days.

We look for a 0.5 - 1% gain using stocks, and a 10 - 20% gain for options. Some signals will show an expected magnitude of movement over 2 - 4% for stocks. This can translate to a 20 - 50% return using options.

With our Premium Member Picks, I hold positions for 20-30 days and look for a 20 - 40% target gain when using options.

Our Active Trader product is intended for short term trading- intra-day or holding for couple of days.

I would also encourage you to watch recordings of our weekly Strategy Roundtable for more details.

For our suggested Entry Prices, we do indicate a slippage amount represented by the ‘+/-’ value next to each Entry Price.

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Trading Guide

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