FOMC Begins Tuesday, Fed Decision On Wednesday

June 17, 2019
By Vlad Karpel

U.S. Markets are on the move up today ahead of this week’s Fed decision. The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to begin their two-day meeting tomorrow where a rate decision will be made, also due for a rate decision this week are U.K. and Japan markets. While some analysts predict a rate cut to come from this week’s meeting, others point to no rate cut in light of the G20 summit scheduled for the end of the month where President Trump and Chinese President Xi are due to meet. Tariffs are also in focus this week as public hearings in Washington regarding President Trump’s proposed $300 billion on additional tariffs Chinese goods are set to begin. Look for May Housing Starts data on Tuesday followed by Oracle earnings on Wednesday and manufacturing data on Friday. With all eyes on Fed decision this week, we encourage our readers to continue monitoring SPY overhead resistance at $290. Avoid chasing near this level but look to buy near $286. We expect the market to remain between these levels for now but if the market breaks $290, we could see a retest of 52 weeks high for the SPY. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

All three major U.S. indices are in the green today after closing in the red Friday, with tech and communication sectors showing nice gains. Market-focus will center on the U.S. Fed decision this week as many have factored in up to two rate cuts for the year after slumping recent slumping employment data. Still, a rate cut could be avoided during this FOMC meeting as clarity regarding tariffs and trades is expected in the coming weeks with hearings on Capitol Hill and the upcoming G20 summit. While a major trade deal might not come from President Xi and President Trump’s meeting during the summit, an agreement could be reached with further trade talks to be scheduled. Look for Fed Chair Powell to meet with the press on Wednesday following the conclusion of the two-day meeting.

Several big-name movers today include Facebook, Dish Network, and Huawei. Facebook shares are up 3% behind the news of their planned involvement in cryptocurrencies. Similarly, Bitcoin was able to rally behind the news, rising to a 13-month high, currently trading above $9,000. Dish Network, also seeing nice gains of over 3%, is the leading bidder to buy additional assets T-Mobile and Sprint are looking to shed for their merger to be approved. Finally, Huawei has curbed their outlook for 2019 and 2020 with expected sales dropping over $100 billion, seeing a $30 billion revenue hit from the U.S. ban. Globally, Asian markets closed slightly higher while European markets were mixed.

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.34% moves to +1.33% in five trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,907.34. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  


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Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On June 5th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Under Armour Inc (UAA). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.

Trade Breakdown

UAA entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $24.70 (± 0.16) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $24.95 in the second hour of trading that day. The Stop Loss price was set at $24.45.


Tuesday Morning Featured Symbol

*Please note: At the time of publication we do not own the featured symbol, ROST. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks,  please click here.

Our featured symbol for Tuesday is Ross Stores Inc (ROST). ROST is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.  

The stock is trading at $102.02 at the time of publication, up 1.00% from the open with a +0.54% vector figure.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $52.12 per barrel, down 0.74% from the open, at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $10.89 at the time of publication. Vector figures show +1.52% today, which turns +0.27% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Gold

The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.16% at $1,342.20 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mostly negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $126.43 at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.24% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.21% at 2.08% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 0.34% at 2.58% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.35% moves to -0.75% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 1.70% at $15.54 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $15.36 with a vector of +2.70%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


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Prepare to take action: The next blockbuster trade recommendation could be released at any time.

This self-learning, AI-based system was designed by the same expert who built a trading platform that sold for $1 billion…

And it’s getting staggering results – including a 75% win record…a to-date return of 1,279%…and a single-day record gain of 121.43%.

Now you can join this elite group of traders – and access this system’s consistent winning trades – with zero risk.

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